Last updated: 22 May 2026. Primary data source: Department of Home Affairs — Study Visa Statistics, reported by SBS News, 3 May 2026 and confirmed by VisaHQ, 4 May 2026.
The Department of Home Affairs (DHA) released March 2026 student visa data in early May.
Data scope note: DHA publishes separate statistics for offshore and onshore applications. These are fundamentally different populations with very different outcomes. All figures in this article are labelled explicitly as offshore or onshore — do not apply offshore figures to onshore situations or vice versa.
- Offshore = applying from outside Australia (from your home country)
- Onshore = applying from within Australia (already in Australia on another visa and eligible to apply)
March 2026 snapshot: offshore vs onshore side by side
| Metric | Offshore (March 2026) | Onshore (March 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Higher Education grant rate | 59% | >90% |
| Higher Education refusal rate | 41% | <10% |
| Estimated HE refusals | ~4,800 (offshore) | Not separately published |
The offshore figure — 59% grant rate — is the lowest for offshore Higher Education applicants recorded in roughly 20 years. The onshore figure reflects an entirely different assessment environment, where applicants have appeal rights, identity verification is simpler, and DHA's fraud risk profile is lower.
Sources: offshore data — DHA via SBS News, 3 May 2026; onshore data — VisaHQ, 4 May 2026.
Offshore figures in detail — March 2026
| Metric | March 2026 figure | Applies to |
|---|---|---|
| Offshore HE grant rate | 59% | Offshore only |
| Offshore HE refusal rate | 41% | Offshore only |
| Estimated offshore HE refusals | ~4,800 | Offshore only |
| Revenue from refusal fees (est.) | ~AUD $9.6 million | Offshore only |
The refusal fee calculation is straightforward: Australia's student visa application fee, set at AUD $2,000 (non-refundable, introduced July 2025), multiplied by approximately 4,800 refused applications in March 2026 alone. Canberra collected close to AUD $10 million in a single month from applications it rejected. Source: VisaHQ, 5 May 2026.
February 2026 context (prior month)
For comparison, the February 2026 data — released earlier in April — showed a 32.5% offshore refusal rate for Higher Education applicants. That was already described as the highest monthly figure in 20 years at the time of its release. The March figure of 41% represents a further deterioration month-on-month.
Source: ICEF Monitor, April 2026.
Offshore refusal rates by country (February 2026 — most recent country-level breakdown)
These figures are offshore only. DHA publishes country-level breakdowns with a lag. The February 2026 figures are the most recent available by country at the time of publication. Country-level onshore breakdowns are not separately published by DHA.
| Country | Offshore HE refusal rate (Feb 2026) | Data scope |
|---|---|---|
| Nepal | 65% | Offshore only |
| Bangladesh | 51% | Offshore only |
| India | 40% | Offshore only |
| Sri Lanka | 38% | Offshore only |
| Bhutan | 36% | Offshore only |
| China | ~3.5% | Offshore only |
Source: SBS News / DHA data, reported 3 May 2026 · VisaHQ, 4 May 2026.
For Indian nationals specifically, VisaHQ reported on 4 May 2026 that the offshore approval rate fell to 51% in March 2026 — meaning India's offshore approval rate crossed below the 50% mark for the first time. This is an offshore-only figure; Indian students already in Australia applying onshore are not represented in this number.
Why offshore and onshore rates are so different
The gap between offshore (59% grant rate) and onshore (>90% grant rate) is not a quirk — it reflects a fundamentally different assessment process.
Offshore applicants are assessed entirely on documents. DHA cannot verify identity or employment in person. High-risk markets have higher rates of document fraud, which the Genuine Student test is designed to catch. There is no appeal right for a refused offshore application — refusal is generally final unless new evidence is submitted.
Onshore applicants are already in the country. DHA can verify identity through biometrics already on file, cross-reference with employment and tax records, and assess compliance history (whether the person has followed their current visa conditions). Onshore applicants also have formal review rights if refused, which changes the risk calculation for DHA.
This is why the same applicant can face very different odds depending purely on where they apply from. It is not a loophole — it is a deliberate distinction built into the visa system. Eligibility to apply onshore is restricted; not everyone can do it.
Practical implication: if you are already in Australia on another visa and are eligible to lodge onshore, your approval odds are substantially higher. Confirm your eligibility with a registered migration agent before deciding where to lodge.
Why refusal rates are rising: the Genuine Student test
The spike traces directly to the Genuine Student (GS) test, which the government introduced to replace the older Genuine Temporary Entrant (GTE) requirement.
Under the GS test, DHA case officers undertake what they describe as "holistic financial assessments." This goes beyond checking a bank balance — officers scrutinise the authenticity of employment documents, the relationship between your stated study goals and your background, and your ties to your home country.
Key changes compared to the old GTE:
- Financial evidence must cover the full duration of the course, not just the first year. For a three-year degree, migration agents report this commonly means demonstrating AUD $80,000 or more in accessible funds.
- Document authenticity is actively verified — third-party document brokers have come under particular scrutiny.
- Your country's evidence level (Level 1, 2, or 3) directly affects how much documentation is required. Level 3 countries — which include India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan as of the 27 March 2026 classification update — face the highest documentation burden.
What this means for your application
If you are applying from a Level 3 country (India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka):
- Prepare financial evidence for your entire course duration, not just one year
- Use original bank statements and official employment records — avoid any third-party document preparation
- Allow additional processing time under MD115 priority settings (see our MD115 processing guide)
If you are applying from a Level 1 country (China, most Western countries):
- Standard documentation applies
- Refusal rates remain low — China's rate of ~3.5% in February 2026 reflects minimal additional scrutiny
For all applicants:
- The AUD $2,000 fee is non-refundable regardless of outcome — check your eligibility and prepare thoroughly before submitting
- Onshore applicants should confirm eligibility carefully, as the higher onshore success rate applies only to eligible bridging scenarios
Where to find the official data
- DHA Study Visa Statistics — updated monthly, typically with a 6-week lag
- Department of Education Monthly Summary — enrolment data by sector and country
- DHA Visa Prioritisation Status — current processing priority by provider
We update this article when new DHA monthly data is released.
Data sources: DHA Study Visa Statistics · SBS News, 3 May 2026 · VisaHQ, 4 May 2026 · VisaHQ — India rate, 4 May 2026 · VisaHQ — $10M fees, 4 May 2026 · ICEF Monitor, April 2026