Last updated: 22 May 2026. Primary source: Department of Education — International Student Monthly Summary, January 2026 release · Study Australia — MD115.
Of the three international student sectors in Australia, only one is growing: Higher Education.
January 2026 commencement data from the Department of Education shows Higher Education rose 3% month-on-month while ELICOS fell 37% and VET fell 23% (all figures combined offshore + onshore). For the first time in a prolonged period of sector-wide pressure, Higher Education stands apart.
Data scope: All commencement and enrolment figures in this article are combined — offshore + onshore combined — as published by the Department of Education. Visa approval and refusal rates from DHA are labelled separately as offshore-only. These are distinct data sets — do not apply approval rate figures to enrolment figures or vice versa.
What the January 2026 data shows
| Sector | Jan 2026 commencement change (vs Dec 2025) | Data scope |
|---|---|---|
| Higher Education | +3% | Offshore + onshore combined |
| VET | –23% | Offshore + onshore combined |
| ELICOS | –37% | Offshore + onshore combined |
Source: Department of Education Monthly Summary, January 2026.
Higher Education is the only sector where enrolment demand is moving up. The gap between HE and the other two sectors reflects a structural difference in how students and their families respond to higher visa scrutiny: for degree-seeking students with clear career pathways and strong financial backing, the cost and complexity of applying has not suppressed demand at the same rate it has in ELICOS and VET.
Why HE is growing while ELICOS and VET contract
Several factors converge to insulate Higher Education from the pressure hitting ELICOS and VET:
Stronger financial profiles. Offshore degree applicants from Level 1 and Level 2 countries (the largest source markets for university enrolments) typically come with stronger financial evidence. Level 3 applicants (India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan) exist in all three sectors, but HE applicants from these markets tend to have more traceable, institutionally-documented financial backing than ELICOS or VET applicants.
Career pathway credibility. A 3-year bachelor's degree in Engineering or Commerce has an obvious career pathway that aligns with DHA's Genuine Student assessment criteria. The study-to-career connection that DHA scrutinises is more often explicitly clear for degree-level applicants.
University NPL allocations. Under MD115, universities received allocations for 2026 that are on average 9% higher than their 2025 allocations (Study Australia — MD115 explainer). With more headroom in their NOSC counts, most universities remain at MD115 Priority 1 — the fastest offshore processing tier.
Source market diversification. Major Australian universities have historically drawn from a wider range of source countries, including high-approval-rate markets like China, the United States, and the United Kingdom. This diversification buffers aggregate commencement numbers against the impact of tightened conditions in any single high-refusal market.
Offshore approval rates: HE is not immune
Growth in combined commencements does not mean offshore HE applicants have easy odds. The offshore Higher Education grant rate was 59% in March 2026 — meaning 41% of offshore HE applicants were refused that month.
This is the offshore-only figure. It applies to students applying from outside Australia and is not representative of onshore outcomes.
| Month | Offshore HE grant rate | Offshore HE refusal rate | Data scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | 67.5% | 32.5% | Offshore only |
| March 2026 | 59% | 41% | Offshore only |
Source: SBS News / DHA, 3 May 2026 · VisaHQ, 4 May 2026.
The sector is growing in enrolment terms while simultaneously facing stricter visa scrutiny. These are not contradictory — growth in approved applications is outpacing the increase in refusals, and more total applications are being submitted. More students are applying; more are also being refused.
Onshore Higher Education approval rates remain above 90% (SBS News / DHA, 3 May 2026).
MD115 and Higher Education processing times
Under MD115, most Higher Education providers are currently at Priority 1 — meaning their NOSC commencements are within or below their 2026 allocation.
Offshore processing times — Higher Education (Priority 1 provider): typically 28 days to 6 months, with a median of approximately 33 days for straightforward applications as of February 2026. Source: DHA visa processing times.
This is the fastest median processing time of the three sectors — significantly faster than VET (7–12 months) and ELICOS (44 days to 14 months). The speed differential is due to HE applications being more standardised in their document requirements and HE providers generally having clearer institutional relationships with DHA.
All processing times above are offshore applications only. Onshore processing is not governed by MD115 and follows a separate queue.
What Higher Education growth means for students
If you are deciding between sectors, the January 2026 data provides several practical signals:
Provider choice is better in HE. With +3% growth in HE commencements, universities are actively filling their allocations — meaning more course options, more offer letters being issued, and a competitive intake environment. ELICOS and VET providers, by contrast, are operating well below their historical volumes.
Check your provider's priority status. Even within the growing HE sector, individual universities vary in their MD115 priority tier. A university that has had high commencements mid-year may shift to Priority 2 as their allocation fills. Check the current status at DHA Visa Prioritisation Status before your intended application date.
Packaged courses: the main CoE determines priority. If your application includes ELICOS plus a degree, the priority is set by the degree-granting institution — not the ELICOS college. See our MD115 processing guide for full details on the packaged course rule.
Approval odds vary by source country. Even within HE, approval rates differ sharply by nationality. Indian offshore HE applicants saw a 49% approval rate (offshore only) in March 2026 — below the sector average. See our Indian student visa guide for country-specific data.
This article provides general information only. It is not migration advice. For advice specific to your circumstances, consult a MARA-registered migration agent.
Data sources: Department of Education — International Student Monthly Summary · DHA Study Visa Statistics · Study Australia — MD115 · SBS News, 3 May 2026 · VisaHQ, 4 May 2026 · DHA processing priorities