Last updated: 30 July 2026. Data source: DHA Study Visa Statistics, ingested into SVH's production dataset via get_country_trailing_rates.
Data scope: Offshore and onshore reported separately. Current window: March to May 2026. Prior window: December 2025 to February 2026. Both are rolling three month windows, the same comparison SVH's country cards use. Countries with fewer than 100 lodgements in the current window are excluded from the tables below; small-sample rates swing on a handful of decisions and are not a reliable movement signal.
Country-level grant rates move every window. Most of that movement is noise. The tables below isolate the markets where enough volume moved to make the shift meaningful, comparing the current three month window against the one before it.
Offshore: the biggest declines
| Country | Current rate | Prior rate | Change | Current lodgements |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zimbabwe | 43.2% | 89.4% | −46.3 pt | 139 |
| Nigeria | 52.1% | 83.5% | −31.4 pt | 144 |
| Philippines | 39.2% | 65.7% | −26.4 pt | 1,315 |
| Iran | 48.8% | 74.5% | −25.6 pt | 127 |
| Kenya | 30.6% | 56.2% | −25.6 pt | 1,808 |
| Bhutan | 50.5% | 75.4% | −24.9 pt | 1,504 |
| Sri Lanka | 53.3% | 69.6% | −16.3 pt | 1,186 |
| Cambodia | 78.4% | 94.2% | −15.8 pt | 218 |
| Fiji | 64.7% | 80.1% | −15.5 pt | 167 |
| Turkiye | 46.4% | 62.0% | −15.6 pt | 371 |
(Offshore only.) Source: DHA Study Visa Statistics, via SVH production dataset.
Offshore: where rates rose
On the same volume threshold, only four nationalities moved up:
| Country | Current rate | Prior rate | Change | Current lodgements |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mongolia | 72.6% | 64.3% | +8.4 pt | 146 |
| Germany | 96.4% | 89.2% | +7.2 pt | 112 |
| Vietnam | 92.1% | 85.9% | +6.3 pt | 1,599 |
| Argentina | 71.2% | 67.7% | +3.4 pt | 118 |
(Offshore only.) Source: DHA Study Visa Statistics, via SVH production dataset.
That asymmetry, ten meaningful decliners against four meaningful gainers, is itself the headline. On current volume, offshore approval momentum skewed negative across the window for most tracked markets.
Onshore: the picture is different
Onshore movement was smaller in magnitude and mixed in direction. The largest onshore moves on the same 100-lodgement threshold:
| Country | Current rate | Prior rate | Change | Current lodgements |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peru | 79.9% | 65.8% | +14.1 pt | 154 |
| Turkiye | 89.3% | 81.4% | +7.8 pt | 401 |
| Nigeria | 85.5% | 77.9% | +7.6 pt | 186 |
| India | 71.4% | 65.2% | +6.2 pt | 8,047 |
| Saudi Arabia | 97.4% | 91.4% | +6.1 pt | 312 |
| Kenya | 81.6% | 75.8% | +5.8 pt | 938 |
| Taiwan | 73.4% | 79.9% | −6.4 pt | 689 |
| Indonesia | 76.3% | 82.3% | −6.1 pt | 1,125 |
| France | 85.2% | 90.3% | −5.1 pt | 250 |
| Argentina | 83.7% | 88.2% | −4.5 pt | 264 |
(Onshore only.) Source: DHA Study Visa Statistics, via SVH production dataset.
India is the volume story here: 8,047 onshore lodgements in the current window, the highest of any nationality onshore, moving up 6.2 points. That is a large absolute number of applications shifting in the same direction, not a small-sample artefact.
What this means for agents and providers
- Offshore Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Iran and the Philippines pipelines warrant closer evidence review right now. These are the steepest offshore declines on meaningful volume this window.
- Vietnam is the offshore market moving the right direction at real scale. 1,599 lodgements at 92.1%, up 6.3 points, makes it one of the stronger offshore placement markets to watch.
- Don't read a one-window move as a permanent repricing of a market. Three month windows smooth out single-month noise but can still reflect a temporary batch effect (a large cohort from one provider or intake period). Check the next release before treating any single window as the new normal for a market you place into regularly.
Individual circumstances vary. This article is general information, not migration or legal advice. For guidance on a specific application, consult a MARA registered migration agent.
Data sources: DHA Study Visa Statistics