Last updated: 30 July 2026. Data source: DHA Study Visa Statistics, ingested into SVH's production dataset via get_country_trailing_rates.
Data scope: Offshore only. Figures cover ELICOS, VET and Higher Education, the three sectors SVH tracks. Schools and postgraduate research are excluded from the underlying dataset entirely. All rates below are for the rolling three month window of March to May 2026, the most recent released data. DHA publishes with a standard six week lag, so this is the newest window available, not necessarily the newest calendar month in isolation.
If you are applying for an Australian student visa from outside Australia, your nationality is one of the strongest predictors of how your application will be assessed. DHA does not publish a single "approval rate" figure. It publishes lodgement and grant volumes by country, and the rate you calculate from those numbers varies enormously depending on where you are applying from.
The headline numbers
Offshore grant rates for the twenty highest-volume nationalities, March to May 2026:
| Country | Grant rate | Lodgements | Evidence level* |
|---|---|---|---|
| China (excl. SARs) | 95.9% | 9,775 | L2 |
| India | 49.1% | 7,774 | L3 |
| Nepal | 34.6% | 6,298 | L3 |
| Bangladesh | 48.8% | 3,393 | L3 |
| Kenya | 30.6% | 1,808 | Unclassified |
| Vietnam | 92.1% | 1,599 | L2 |
| Bhutan | 50.5% | 1,504 | L3 |
| Indonesia | 79.5% | 1,362 | L2 |
| Philippines | 39.2% | 1,315 | L3 |
| Sri Lanka | 53.3% | 1,186 | L3 |
| Brazil | 75.9% | 1,139 | L2 |
| Pakistan | 49.2% | 862 | L3 |
| South Korea | 90.6% | 795 | L1 |
| Japan | 95.6% | 630 | L1 |
| Taiwan | 95.1% | 576 | L1 |
| Colombia | 58.5% | 573 | L3 |
| Malaysia | 94.6% | 522 | L1 |
| Thailand | 72.0% | 467 | L3 |
| Singapore | 97.6% | 410 | Unclassified |
| Turkiye | 46.4% | 371 | Unclassified |
*Evidence level per SVH's triangulated classification (see below). "Unclassified" means the country carries no verified tier — never assume Level 2 for these.
Source: DHA Study Visa Statistics, via SVH production dataset.
The pattern
Two clusters stand out:
- Strong-passport markets clear above 90%. China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and Vietnam all sit at or above 90% for the current window. Four of these six are Evidence Level 1 or 2.
- Several high-volume South Asian markets sit near or below half. Nepal (34.6%), the Philippines (39.2%), Bangladesh (48.8%), India (49.1%) and Pakistan (49.2%) are all Evidence Level 3 and are also five of the six highest-lodgement nationalities in this dataset. That combination, high volume and high scrutiny, is why these markets dominate refusal-rate discussion in the sector.
This is not a ranking of "easy" versus "hard" countries in isolation. Evidence level, course type, provider mix and individual application quality all move the number for any single applicant. Read how SVH classifies evidence levels before drawing conclusions about your own case.
What this means if you're applying
- Check your evidence level before you assume a rate applies to you. A 95% national average does nothing for you if your specific application is weak. A 35% national average does not mean you will be refused if your application is strong.
- Country rate is a planning input, not a verdict. Use it to set realistic timeline and documentation expectations, particularly for Evidence Level 3 markets where DHA scrutiny is genuinely higher.
- Onshore applicants see different numbers. These figures are offshore only. If you are already in Australia applying for a further visa, do not apply an offshore rate to your situation.
Individual circumstances vary. This article is general information, not migration or legal advice. For guidance on your specific application, consult a MARA registered migration agent.
Data sources: DHA Study Visa Statistics